The following
are responses and summaries of various readings related to Human Health,
Disease, and the Environment.
Linkages Between Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease
Weather and climate are different
ideas in similar fields of study.
Weather is the measurement of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and
wind daily whereas climate measures these factors over a long period of time. Climate is an average and varies with
geography and time. The average
temperature of an area decreases by 6.5 degrees C with every 1000 meter change
vertically and decreases 5 degrees C with every 1000 kilometer change from the
equator. The range with which
temperature fluctuates due to the seasons is greater towards the poles, with
much less change experienced near the equator.
There are many climate cycles occurring from yearly to millennially and
some occurring as little as every 100,000 years; these oscillations can cause
temperature shifts as high as 10 degree C.
Since the Industrial Revolution, and more notably in the last twenty
years, the global average temperature has begun to increase yearly and is
predicted to continue increasing several degrees in the next century. The basis for good predictive weather and
climate models does not rest solely on the atmosphere but also in surface
variations, especially the oceans.
Currently weather prediction is only effective on a timescale of less
than two weeks, while climate models are limited to seasonal or greater
timescales. Including the effects of
ocean, atmosphere, and land may make climate models sufficient for shorter
timescales and weather prediction for greater timescales. With infectious disease, the number of cases
that indicates and epidemic will vary with each particular disease, region, and
time. Emerging disease can be due to
climatic or ecological change, which causes a greater number of people to come
into contact with a natural reservoir of infection. Diseases can be transmitted either directly,
due to contact with an agent, or indirectly, through a natural reservoir or
host. Many studies of infectious disease
use the SEIR framework: S. The proportion of people who are able
to become infected E. Within that
same group, those who have had contact with the agent but who have not become
infected I. The number of people within S group who have
contracted the disease R. The number
of people who have been removed from the original group S due to either death
or immunity. SEIR attempts to account for the many
different factors in disease studies such as population size and density,
demographics, connectivity patterns, and immunity. Diseases and natural reservoirs have
environmental conditions that are both favorable and not for the spread of
particular diseases which include precipitation, temperature, humidity, and
ultraviolet radiation. Most diseases are
sensitive to changes in temperature with regards to their dissemination, replication,
and movement. Climate change over the
long-term may result in increased intensity and occurrence in extreme weather
events, where the direct impact is obviously more deaths due to disasters,
though potentially and indirectly an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. The diseases associated with flooding are
well known while droughts are not nearly as studied, though a disease would not
affect a crisis area should it not have been present in the system before the
extreme event and had not be introduced.
There are many other factors that influence disease dynamics including
land use, migration of disease and hosts, the societal makeup of populations,
and public health services.